METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES FOR TRADE POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT OF RUSSIAN MEAT INDUSTRY

DOI 10.32651/2070-0288-2018-5-49-53

Issue № 5, 2018, article № 7, pages 49-53

Section: Agrofood market

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ПОДХОДЫ К ОЦЕНКЕ ВНЕШНЕТОРГОВОГО ПОТЕНЦИАЛА МЯСНОГО ЖИВОТНОВОДСТВА

Keywords: MEAT INDUSTRY, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, MEAT MARKET, EXPORT POTENTIAL, FORECAST, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, COMPETITION

Abstract: Russian meat industry adequately responded to external and internal challenges of recent years and made a huge step in solving the problem of import substitution. Import dependence decreased in 3.6 times, the share of domestic meat products increased in 1.2 times, and self-sufficiency relative to the current consumption standards increased from 68.9‰ in 2010 to 97.6‰ in 2017. Capacity of domestic meat market in value terms reached 1365.8 billion roubles, having increased by 45.1 billion roubles mainly due to increased volumes of consumption by 4.3‰ per year. Paid demand at domestic meat market exceeds the supply of domestic producers; therefore, it’s prematurely to raise the issue of industry export orientation. The export of meat products should not be considered as a strategic target of the government, but as a mechanism to improve the stability of the industry and to create preconditions for expanded reproduction. Development of industries with competitive advantages and free trade ensure the growth of general people's welfare. Taking into account the achieved results in the sectors of meat industry, the specifics of domestic meat market formation for certain types and the influence of external factors, our forecast for the next three years involves: an annual increase in production (0.3‰ - for sheep breeding; 6.3‰ - for beef cattle breeding; 2.4‰ - for poultry; 5‰ - for pig) and the possibility of exporting up to 475 thousand tons of all meat types.

Authors: CHinarov Anton Vladimirovich