NORMATIVE FORECAST OF THE FOODSTUFFS CONSUMPTION BY THE POPULATION OF RUSSIA

Issue № 12, 2017, article № 8, pages 57-65

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: НОРМАТИВНЫЙ ПРОГНОЗ ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ ПРОДУКТОВ ПИТАНИЯ НАСЕЛЕНИЕМ РОССИИ

Keywords: FORECAST, CONSUMPTION, FOODSTUFFS, AGE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION, FOOD SECURITY DOCTRINE

Abstract: At present, the issue of the food security achieving is one of the most important. There are different ways to achieve it, but all of them depend on the norms of consumption and the population size. However, there is another important aspect that is rarely considered. It’s the age structure of the population influence on the food consumption. The aim of the work is to study the consumption of foodstuffs, taking into account the age structure of the population at the present time and for the period up to 2050. The minimum standards approved by the law were chosen as the standards of consumption. They are lower than medical norms, but closer to the real consumption. According to the most probable variant of the population forecast, the working-age population will decrease, and the number of pensioners will increase. The number of children will slightly decrease. As a result, by 2033, foodstuffs consumption by the minimum standards will be reduced by 0.9-2.4‰. As for children, they will decrease by their consumption by 4.4‰, the working-age population will decrease by 8,3‰, and the pensioners will increase their consumption by 19.8‰. By 2050, the consumption of children and the working-age population will decrease by 2.3‰ and 20.1‰, while for pensioners will increase it by 37,3‰. In general, the reduction will consist 3.5-5.6‰. Consequently, we can assume a reduction of the food market. At the same time, due to the increase of the pensioners number, it is necessary to develop areas that meet the demand of this category of the population better. At present, food security is not achieved by a number of criteria, but under certain conditions it can be assumed that the situation will improve by 2033.

Authors: Sinitsa Arsenii Leonidovich