THE FORECAST OF PLACEMENT OF SUNFLOWER IN THE PENZA REGION

Issue № 12, 2017, article № 6, pages 42-47

Section: Agrofood market

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ РАЗМЕЩЕНИЯ ПОСЕВОВ ПОДСОЛНЕЧНИКА В ПЕНЗЕНСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Keywords: OIL CROPS, SUNFLOWER, SOWN AREA, METHODS OF FORECASTING, FORECASTING MODEL, FORECAST, TREND, FORECAST GROUPING

Abstract: Oilseeds occupy the second place in the diet of the world's population after cereals. Vegetable oil along with animal fats has great nutritional value as a high-calorie product. The main raw source of vegetable oil production in the Russian Federation in general and in the Penza region in particular is sunflower. The rational placement of sunflower crops across the region, taking into account natural and economic conditions, allows more efficient use of land, tools and labor. The aim of the study is to develop a forecast for the location of sunflower crops in the region based on data for the past 20 years. Proceeding from this, the dynamics of the main indicators of the seeds of the sub-sunflower was analyzed, a grouping of the regions of the region according to the share of sunflower crops was proposed, and a methodological approach was determined for the forecasting of the sunflower sown area. In the process of research, general scientific and private methods were used. All districts of the area have been divided on a share of oil-bearing crops into two groups up to 20‰ and more than 20‰. As a result of the research, measures were proposed to optimize the location of sunflower in the region, as a result of which it is planned not only to increase the efficiency of agricultural organizations, to compensate for the existing shortage of oilseeds, but also to restore and preserve soil fertility. In the long term areas with the oversaturated share of crops of sunflower at introduction of new crop rotations won't be. Cultivated area of sunflower in the predicted period slightly will decrease, and by 2018 will be 208.11 thousand hectares. Decrease in the sizes of acreage can be compensated by introduction to an oil-bearing crop rotation - a kramba Abyssinian.

Authors: Vinnichek Liubov Borisovna, Pogorelova Elena Viktorovna, Dergunov Andrei Viktorovich