THE EVALUATION OF THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC RISKS FOR AGRIBUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS IN THE ORYOL REGION

Issue № 7, 2017, article № 2, pages 4-11

Section: Problems of efficient management

Language: Russian

Original language title: ЭВАЛЬВАЦИЯ УРОВНЕЙ ХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ РИСКОВ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЙ ОРЛОВСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Keywords: RISK EVALUATION, FINANCIAL STABILITY, AGRICULTURAL ORGANIZATIONS, ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, BANKRUPTCY, RISK FORECASTING SCENARIOS

Abstract: The analysis of business activity of the agricultural organizations of the Oryol region which has shown heterogeneity of financial stability of agrarian formations of this region is presented in article. It demonstrates high probability of formation and development in their activity of various economic risks connected with excessive dependence on loan sources. Therefore the factorial model of an evaluation of levels of economic risks based on the comparative analysis of deviations of indicators of a financial condition of the organizations from the established standard values is offered. The existing models and software products are initially developed for an evaluation of a financial condition of the non-agricultural organizations, so, don't reflect fully specifics of their activity. Between the level of economic risks and indicators of financial stability there is the return interrelation. The conclusion is drawn that the organizations of the Oryol region test an acute shortage in own sources of financing and are dependent on the loan capital. 5 groups of agrarian formations have been allocated, a certain level of economic risks is inherent in each of which. At the same time the most part of data of the organizations of Krasnozorensky, Novoderevenkovsky and Kromsky districts (more than 63‰), have rather high risk level which is negatively influencing their economic activity. The correlation and regression analysis has confirmed validity of a hypothesis, concerning existence of close interrelation of level of economic risks of the agricultural organizations with the level of their financial stability. Various expected scenarios of development of levels of economic risks of the agricultural organizations, possible negative consequences allowing to warn connected with emergence of risks are constructed.

Authors: Alpatov Anton Viacheslavovich, Lovchikova Elena Ionovna, Matveev Vladislav Viacheslavovich, Novoselov Eduard Arkadevich