METHODOLOGY AND PRACTICE OF MEAT MARKET FORECASTING

Issue № 11, 2016, article № 11, pages 62-68

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ И ПРАКТИКА ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ВНУТРЕННЕГО РЫНКА МЯСА

Keywords: FORECASTING, MEAT MARKET, COMPETITION, PRICE FORMATION

Abstract: Providing people with the quality domestic products is the priority function of the meat market. Using the system of indicators, reflecting the dynamics and trends of processes combination is essential for the quantitative condition analysis of meat market. Forecasting of meat market capacity is to justify through various methods the total amounts of particular meat type’s consumption within a certain period. Depending on the object and the phase of forecasting it’s used expert, economic-mathematical and normative forecasting approaches of meat market capacity. Each of them is realized through specific methods of forecast calculations. The possibility of modelling the dependence of meat market capacity with macroeconomic parameters is provided through formation of factor models for meat market capacity forecasting. The gist of these methods is that the meat market capacity, calculated in value terms, is presented in form of several factors function. Selection of the specific factors determining the value of meat market capacity and the regression form depends on the characteristics of a particular meat type. Using only one of these methods does not allow ensuring integrated forecasting approach that could increase the risk of making unjustified decisions regarding plans for livestock and poultry development. Improving the forecasting accuracy could be based on integration of different forecasting methods. To create multifactorial model is priority direction for improving the forecasting methodology of meat market capacity. We realized mathematical formalization of these principles in the forecasting model of meat market. High reliability of medium-term forecasts is ensured by using wide range of macroeconomic and technological factors that allows more accurately calculating projected meat balance.

Authors: CHinarov Anton Vladimirovich