ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF SCENARIOS OF DEVELOPMENT OF BRANCHES OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

Issue № 11, 2016, article № 9, pages 49-56

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: АНАЛИЗ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ СЦЕНАРИЕВ РАЗВИТИЯ ОТРАСЛЕЙ ЖИВОТНОВОДСТВА

Keywords: CATTLE BREEDING, POULTRY FARMING, INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT, DECREASING-COST INDUSTRY, INCREASING-COST INDUSTRY, GOVERNMENT SUPPORT, PRICE ELASTICITY

Abstract: The article analyzes the degree of influence dynamics of prices for resources and products to changes in industry output when scenarios of animal breeding with decreasing or increasing costs. Substantiated proposals to improve the forms of government support aimed at the growth of agricultural production while reducing consumer prices to provide economic access to food. Branches of pig-breeding and broiler poultry farming develop according to the scenario of branches with the decreasing expenses when growth rates of the outputs are higher, than growth rates of the prices as actively realize possibilities of NTP and attraction of the loan capital on favourable terms, increase scales and level of an intensification of production on an innovative basis. The dairy and meat cattle breeding, egg poultry farming, despite growth of volumes of government support and strengthening of protectionist measures, develop according to the scenario of branches with the increasing expenses. Further increase in volumes of consumption, respectively, sale and production, will demand essential reduction of prices that will increase relevance of search of all possible ways of decrease in expenses, effective development of innovative technologies in production, management, marketing and logistics is basic of which. The type of the scenario of development - with the decreasing or increasing expenses - defines fundamental distinction in resistance of the branch outputs to changes of the external environment. As in branches with the decreasing and increasing expenses results of the same measures of state regulation and support differently are shown, in article the suggestions for improvement of forms of the state support directed to increase in production of agrarian products at decrease in consumer prices for ensuring economic availability of food to the population are proved.

Authors: Surovtsev Vladimir Nikolaevich, Nikulina IUliia Nikolaevna