MANAGEMENT OF THE AGRARIAN REGION: PLANNING AND FORECASTING OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Issue № 2, 2016, article № 10, pages 53-62

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: УПРАВЛЕНИЕ АГРАРНЫМ РЕГИОНОМ: ПЛАНИРОВАНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ СОЦИАЛЬНО- ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ

Keywords: SCENARIO FORECASTING, INDICATORS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, STAVROPOL TERRITORY

Abstract: The role of regional forecasting of parameters of social and economic development increases in modern conditions. The results of forecasting are prime reference points during the planning of values of indicators and control of their execution in future periods of time. Usually forecasting of social and economic development is based on the traditional extrapolation of the studied indicator based on the revealed regularities of a tendency of its change. However thus only time factor is considered, but a tendency in change interconnected with the studied indicator aren't taken into account. Authors at implementation of scenario forecasting of indicators of social and economic development offer to use complex econometric model. Scenario forecasting of the generalizing indicators of social and economic development of Stavropol Territory with development of long-term trajectories of extrapolation of indicative variables is carried out (the gross regional product per capita, the average monthly nominal added salary, unemployment rate, the income of the consolidated budget of the region). The developed technique included the creation of model, the substitution of the received options of projections for factorial variables in the model equation for receiving various probabilistic trajectories of change of indicative variables in the predicted period 2013-2025, the selection of expected scenarios (pessimistic, optimistic, inertial), the conditional allocation of the temporary periods of change of expected values of the studied indicative indicators, the comparison of the received expected indicators with the planned values in a state program of social and economic development of Stavropol Territory, the recommendation about revision of the planned values, the identification of the reasons of current situation and development of the detailed program of correctional actions. The presented technique of multiple-factor scenario forecasting of social and economic development has ample opportunities in the solution of applied problems of development, monitoring and correction of indicative indicators of strategic programs of management of the agrarian region as spatial localized system.

Authors: Gerasimov Aleksei Nikolaevich, Gromov Evgenii Ivanovich, Sviridchenko IUrii Aleksandrovich