IMPROVING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

Issue № 10, 2013, article № 11, pages 73-80

Section: Social problems of rural territories

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПОВЫШЕНИЕ УСТОЙЧИВОСТИ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОГО РАЗВИТИЯ

Keywords: SUSTAINABILITY, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

Abstract: The author considers models used for policy development of rural areas. A comprehensive analysis of the sustainability of development was conducted in dynamics for the period of 2007-2011 for all regions of the Russian Federation in the following groups of factors: social, economic, environmental, institutional component of sustainable agricultural development. For characteristics of the prospects for sustainable development the author suggests the definition component of diversification opportunities. Index of complex resistance amounted to indicators of social - 36,43 ‰, economic - 91,22‰, production - 23,67‰, environmental - 24,28‰, which means that the sustainability trends for all the groups of indicators is low for all sets of indicators lower levels will meet more often. To determine the forecast values for agricultural development was applied the method of assessment of probability of the forecasted tendencies of development using the «angle of probability» - index linking the observed trend and forecast. In a conclusion that the forecast of development of the main indicators of development of agriculture, founded in the Government program up to 2020 is likely to occur, in addition to the indicators of agricultural production and crop production. Type the development of the industry on estimated actual and projected trends of main indicators can be described as stagnation.

Authors: Usoltsev Ilia Viktorovich