THE FORECAST OF THE MAIN INDICATORS OF DEVELOPMENT OF PLANT GROWING IN STAVROPOL KRAI

Issue № 4, 2015, article № 12, pages 79-86

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ ОСНОВНЫХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ РАЗВИТИЯ РАСТЕНИЕВОДСТВА В СТАВРОПОЛЬСКОМ КРАЕ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, ECONOMETRIC MODELING, FORECASTING, PERFORMANCE DEVELOPMENT, STAVROPOL KRAI

Abstract: Authors perfromed calculation of expected values of the main indicators of development of separate subsectors of agriculture of Stavropol Krai on the basis of creation of spatial and dynamic econometric models. The offered econometric models were used for forecasting of production and realization of seeds of sunflower and sugar beet agricultural producers of Stavropol Krai for 2015-2030. The applied approach allows to choose optimum version of the administrative decision and provides the highest efficiency of this decision at a given time. Identification of models assumes also calculation of quantitative characteristics of influence of factors of the studied process, helping to formulate thereby more objective conclusions, and increases the accuracy of the received forecasts. The advantage of the presented models is simplicity of their interpretation and practical use, and also possibility of inclusion, if necessary, of new exogenous variables in the explaining part of the equations. It allows to consider influences of again arising factors in region economy which can have essential impact on production and sales of products of plant growing. The listed advantages of this method of forecasting create opportunities to use results of modeling as at the moment time, and in the future, taking into account necessary adjustments.

Authors: Gerasimov Aleksei Nikolaevich, Gromov Evgenii Ivanovich, Skripnichenko IUrii Sergeevich