TOOLS SCENARIO FORECASTING IN THE MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING IN THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY OF THE STAVROPOL KRAI

Issue № 6, 2015, article № 14, pages 85-93

Section: Problems of agroeconomic researches

Language: Russian

Original language title: ИНСТРУМЕНТАРИЙ СЦЕНАРНОГО ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ В СИСТЕМЕ ПРИНЯТИЯ УПРАВЛЕНЧЕСКИХ РЕШЕНИЙ В АГРАРНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ СТАВРОПОЛЬСКОГО КРАЯ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, ECONOMETRIC MODELING, FORECASTING, PERFORMANCE DEVELOPMENT, MANAGEMENT, STATE PROGRAM OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, SCENARIO FORECASTING, STAVROPOL TERRITORY

Abstract: This article presents the calculation of predictive values ​​of the basic indicators of development of individual sub-sectors of agriculture Stavropol Territory on the basis of spatial-dynamic econometric models. The proposed econometric models were used to predict the production, sale and price of grain and sunflower seeds agricultural producers Stavropol Territory for the period of 2015-2030 years. The authors used econometric approach to modeling and forecasting of the basic indicators of the state and development sub-sectors of crop allows you to select the optimal variant management solutions and provides the highest efficiency of the solution at a particular time. The study found projected trajectory of target indicators of the state program of the Stavropol Territory "Development of agriculture", received options (inert, pessimistic, optimistic) estimates of their values ​​for the period up to 2025, an analysis of compliance with the basic values ​​of target indicators prepared variant of the forecast. Construction of econometric models of target indicators of the state program of the Stavropol Territory "Development of agriculture" and use the results of their scenario forecasting should be considered as instrumental methodological basis for the development of socio-economic development of industries and territories. The introduction of the practice of management and forecasting modeling tools will significantly enhance the effectiveness of ongoing program activities.

Authors: Gerasimov Aleksei Nikolaevich, Gromov Evgenii Ivanovich, Skripnichenko IUrii Sergeevich